We’re down to the final seven weeks of the NFL season, and this week should bring some critical results across the league – starting on Thursday, which features three monstrous games that could help decide some of the most competitive division races.
All 32 teams are in action in Week 12 for the first time since early October, and the betting odds are all over the board. Ten of the 16 favorites are at home, while six teams are favored to win by more than a touchdown, including two of the three favorites on Thanksgiving Day.
Here’s a look at the odds this week at BetMGM and the games we’re targeting early on:
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NFL Week 12 betting odds, point spreads (via BetMGM)
|Bills (-9) @ Lions|
|Giants @ Cowboys (-9)|
|Patriots @ Vikings (-3)|
|Buccaneers (-3) @ Browns|
|Bengals (-1.5) @ Titans|
|Texans @ Dolphins (-12)|
|Bears @ Jets (-4.5)|
|Falcons @ Commanders (-3.5)|
|Broncos (-2.5) @ Panthers|
|Ravens (-4) @ Jaguars|
|Chargers (-3.5) @ Cardinals|
|Raiders @ Seahawks (-3.5)|
|Rams @ Chiefs (-14.5)|
|Saints @ 49ers (-8.5)|
|Packers @ Eagles (-7)|
|Steelers @ Colts (-3)|
Vikings -3 vs. Patriots
Look, last week was bad for the Vikings. There’s no way around that. But this feels like a quintessential buy-low spot for a team that, flaws and all, is still one of the 10 best teams in the league and is just two weeks removed from beating the Super Bowl favorites on the road.
The Patriots have strung together a few victories after last week’s miracle win on a last-second punt return, but not every win streak is the same. The last time we saw this team in prime time, it was blown out by the Bears, and its wins since have come against the Jets, Colts, and … Jets.
Those wins over New York are this team’s only victories all year against a team with a winning record, and there are still serious questions about New England’s offense. It may not feel great to back Minnesota after last week’s clunker, but it deserves more respect than this.
Bears-Jets under 41.5
This total might be over 40 right now, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see this one end up in the 30s given all the uncertainty at quarterback for both of these teams.
The Bears’ offense has shown signs of life behind Justin Fields, who has seemingly reinvented himself midseason as a dual-threat superstar. That’s in jeopardy after he was carted off with a shoulder injury late in last week’s loss to the Falcons, putting backup Trevor Siemian in line for his sixth start in five years.
On the other side, Jets coach Robert Saleh won’t commit to starter Zach Wilson after an abominable showing on offense last week. If either quarterback is ruled out for this week, it could prompt some action on the under and put this total on the move. I’d be looking to bet it before that happens.
Betting on the NFL?
Broncos-Panthers under 35
Sometimes the obvious bet is the one worth making. That’s the case here with the offensively challenged Broncos and Panthers facing off in a game that oddsmakers can’t price low enough.
Denver owns the NFL’s worst scoring offense (14.7 PPG) and third-best scoring defense (17.1 PPG) and has posted a ridiculous 9-1 record to the under, even with low totals every single week. Meanwhile, the Panthers are running out of options at quarterback after Baker Mayfield’s worst showing of the year in a 13-3 loss in Baltimore.
This total is already tied for the lowest in any game since 2012, so oddsmakers will likely wait until closer to kickoff before moving this too low and inviting automatic over bets from sharps. Yet I’d still expect a sizable volume to come in on the under, which is 5-0 in games with a total of 37 or less over the last three seasons.